Word of Joel Embiid’s knee injury shook up the NBA MVP odds boards and essentially ended his chances of defending his trophy.
Nikola Jokic has since taken over as the favorite, though the Denver star is far from a lock.
As we hit the All-Star break, here are the latest NBA MVP odds and our best bets.
NBA MVP Odds
NBA odds used for these best bets are from Friday, Feb. 16, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (-140)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+210)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+800)
- Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (+1100)
- Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+3000)
- Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers (+5000)
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (+7000)
- Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (+15000)
NBA MVP Best Bet
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (-140)
Is there any doubt? At this point, there shouldn’t be.
Jokic took home MVP in both 2021 and 2022 and arguably could’ve won last season when he finished runner-up to Embiid. Nevertheless, Jokic finds himself in the driver’s seat once more.
In addition to averaging 26.1 points, Jokic ranks fourth in the NBA in both rebounds (12.0) and assists (8.9) per game. He also has 15 triple-doubles, second to only Domantas Sabonis’ 18.
Denver sits fourth in a crowded Western Conference, so could we see Jokic’s candidacy take a hit if the Nuggets slide? Perhaps. Still, if Jokic maintains this production, the award is his to lose.
[pick id="172949"]
NBA MVP Favorites
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+210)
Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly the most irreplaceable player on a Thunder team that many have pegged as a sleeper to win the West.
SGA ranks second in the NBA in scoring (31.1) and has been dominant defensively, leading all players with 115 steals.
It’s no coincidence that Oklahoma City (37-17) is firmly in the mix for the No. 1 seed.
Jokic remains the safest bet, but Gilgeous-Alexander represents the next-best option, especially if you’re looking for better value at plus odds. He’ll surely sway some voters if the Thunder keep winning.
[pick id="172952"]
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+800)
Antetokounmpo continues to produce at a ridiculously high level, averaging 30.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, and a career-high 6.4 assists. But it certainly doesn’t help his MVP case that Milwaukee is having a somewhat disappointing season.
Thursday’s loss to the lowly Grizzlies dropped Milwaukee — a preseason NBA title contender — to 35-21, including just 3-7 since Doc Rivers replaced Adrian Griffin.
- See where the Bucks stand in our 2024 NBA Finals odds.
Even so, Antetokounmpo’s value can’t be ignored. The Bucks are an entirely different team when he’s off the floor, averaging 109.9 points per 100 possessions. Essentially, they’re a bottom-five offense without him.
It’ll be tough for voters to ignore Antetokounmpo if Milwaukee gets hot again.
NBA MVP Contenders
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks (+1100)
Embiid’s injury has opened the door for Doncic to win his first scoring title. He leads the NBA in points (34.2) and is third in assists (9.5), with both averages representing career highs. Doncic has also improved his 3-point shooting (37.5%), and his nine triple-doubles are third behind Sabonis or Jokic.
- See where the Mavericks rank in our NBA Western Conference odds.
His 73-point outing last month against Atlanta is one of the single-best performances in league history.
Dallas (32-23) is further down the standings than some of the teams on this list, which could inevitably work against Doncic. Still, his dominance is sure to win over some voters.
[pick id="172954"]
Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+3000)
Frankly, it’s a bit befuddling that the best player on the NBA’s best team isn’t getting more love for MVP.
Tatum isn’t scoring at the same rate as last season when he led the league with 2,225 total points, yet he’s still averaging a solid 27.1 points to go with 8.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists.
Meanwhile, Boston sits atop the Eastern Conference at 43-12 and is well on its way to the No. 1 seed.
Given all the talent surrounding him in Boston, it’s slightly more difficult for Tatum to distinguish himself on a night-in, night-out basis. So while he deserves better than 30-1 odds, it’s hard to see him leapfrogging the likes of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Antetokounmpo.
NBA MVP Sleepers
Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks (+7000)
Brunson was terrific in January, averaging 28.9 points and 7.7 assists as the Knicks went 14-2.
This month, however, he’s been even better.
Brunson is averaging 33.7 points through his first six games in February. That includes performances of 40, 36, and 39 points.
- Find out where the Knicks rank in our NBA Eastern Conference winner odds.
The Knicks are extremely short-handed, causing them to limp into the All-Star break on a four-game losing streak. But Brunson will have plenty of opportunities to bolster his MVP case in the second half as the Knicks chase a top-four seed in the East.
[pick id="172951"]
Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (+15000)
Since the calendar flipped to 2024, the Cavaliers have been on a tear. They’re 18-3 during that stretch, including separate winning streaks of eight and nine games. In the process, they’ve leapfrogged Milwaukee for the Central Division lead.
A big reason why is Mitchell, the league’s fourth-leading scorer at 28.4 points per game. He’s been Cleveland’s top scorer in 11 of the last 12 games.
If this keeps up, Mitchell’s MVP odds will surely grow.
Past NBA MVP Winners
2023: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
2022: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
2021: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
2020: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2019: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
2018: James Harden, Houston Rockets
2017: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
2016: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2015: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
2014: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder